Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Head-to-Head Stats, Results & Performance Comparison

• Recently, Jessica Pegula has a slight edge over Aryna Sabalenka in second serve performance, winning 44.38% of points against Sabalenka’s 40.52%. Could this impact the match outcome?
• When examining return game stats, Pegula also leads slightly by winning 50.10% of opponents’ second serve points, compared to Sabalenka's 48.05%.
• In first serve return stats, Sabalenka shows a marginal advantage, winning 29.41% of points, against Pegula’s 28.50%.
• Under pressure, Pegula saves breakpoints at a rate of 53.42%, slightly better than Sabalenka’s 52.43%.
• In terms of match wins over the past year, Sabalenka holds a significant advantage with an 84.00% success rate, while Pegula stands at 69.44%.
• Both players perform best on Hard surfaces with an identical career win percentage of 74% on Hard courts.
• When playing on the Masters series, Sabalenka has a higher win rate of 81.58% compared to Pegula’s 65.63%.
• In direct head-to-head encounters, Sabalenka has a dominant record, winning 8 out of 10 matches against Pegula.
• Their matches are evenly contested in deciding sets, each winning once when they have gone the distance.
• Sabalenka has faced slightly higher-ranked opponents on average, making her match play potentially more challenging.
• Considering deciding sets against all opponents, Sabalenka outperforms Pegula with a 67% success rate compared to Pegula’s 59%.

Editorial Prediction (October 11, 2025, UTC):

In analyzing the upcoming match between Aryna Sabalenka and Jessica Pegula, current form and head-to-head statistics provide crucial insights. Sabalenka, despite slightly weaker stats in some areas, has a superior year-long performance record and a solid head-to-head advantage over Pegula.

Pegula shows some strengths in second serve performance and breakpoint saving ability, yet Sabalenka holds a significant edge in direct matchups and higher success in pivotal matches, including deciding sets.

Given Sabalenka’s previous dominance over Pegula and her strong form across the past year, she is the most likely winner of this upcoming tennis match.